Worries are abounding that one indirect victim of the US-generated credit crunch will be foreign travel, particularly that to developing nations. On one hand this is inevitable, but in a growing market the answer is nuanced. It is clear that the direct victims who are losing homes in the mid-west US were a very small percentage of developing country visitors. Yet for the actual tourists, mostly ABC1s and dreadlocked neo-backpackers ... will they not invest in that new buy-to-let flat in Lewisham or Bucharest and rather have a holiday? Will they choose Nairobi and Phnom Penh over London and LA? Likely is that thrifty people will think they can get a bargain in the developing world and will go for that and save for the expensive European destinations. Tall Economist puts his money squarely on eco-tourism in developing countries sustaining its steady pace of growth.
Source: Business Daily (Nairobi) by Wangui Maina
The credit crisis that has hit the US market, in turn affecting the global markets, is expected to have an impact on travel in 2008 according to a new report by Deloitte.
According to the report, 2008 Travel Industry Trends Report, the tightening in US credit lending is expected to impact on individuals spending on leisure.
"A slumping housing market and softening in consumer confidence is likely to impact travel in the near future," the report stated. In the past consumers have relied on cash-outs from refinanced mortgagees to support THL spending.
The ongoing crisis may make it impossible for some travellers to access finances to travel especially as houses are foreclosed due to faulted mortgages.
The report which looks at the Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure (THL) industry in the American market noted in addition to the credit crisis four other trends are expected to inform travel from this market in 2008.
This include changing customer tastes, globalisation, safety and security, and technology. Customers are increasingly looking for niche products when making decisions on their travellers.
The report notes that travellers look for specific destinations to suit some of their interests especially if it is a repeat journey to a particular destination.
Already Kenya has turned its marketing towards attracting this travellers by promoting various niche products like eco-tourism, bird watching and cultural tourism as a bid to grow the tourism sector.
The growing economies of China and Russia are expected to impact on travel trends in 2008 as travellers from these countries are expected to have more disposable income. Kenya has already turned its focus to China where it hopes to attract more tourists.
Travellers are also expected to visit these countries "especially with Moscow being classifies as one of the most expensive cities in the world," the report noted.
The 2008 Beijing Olympics are expected to be a positive gain for the East Asian country whose hotel rooms is predicted to grow by 76 per cent ahead of this international fete.
According to Deloitte's October 2007 Travel Survey 17 per cent of respondents said the new security measures that have been put in place in the past year will actually deter them from travelling by plane for leisure and 10 per cent said the measures would deter them from travelling by plane for business.
Since the terror attack in 2001 security measures have been tightened in the aviation sector making travelling an excruciating process.
Today airports boast long security lines with new security requirements being unveiled regularly. Mid this year IATA introduced new rules on hand luggage on planes that were adopted in most airlines, the new rules banned the carry any form of liquid aboard the plane.
The debate on climate change is also expected to affect customers travelling patterns, in the recent years there has been an increased awareness of ethical travel. To curb this schemes like carbon offsetting have been introduced to help offset the guilt of carbon emission. In addition this has raised the awareness of sustainable tourism which mainly promotes eco-tourism.
Regardless of all these trends the travel market is still expected to grow in 2008.
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