22 November 2007

CLIMATE CHANGE, EQUITY AND SELF-INTEREST: Japan


PHNOM PENH: Japan is proposing a £1 billion 'upgrade' for Asian forests in countries polluting Japanese air. The initiative, announced by Fukuda at a summit of Asian leaders, includes soft loans and training programs over five years, and is aimed at helping the region tackle global warming while pushing forward with economic development. "For ASEAN nations, the efforts to address climate change must not hinder them from seeking development and economic prosperity". East Asian countries also will adopt an "aspirational goal" of expanding their combined forest cover by at least 15 million hectares by 2020 and fight deforestation.

From TaiPei Times. Japan unveils 'green' aid package at Asian summit

The country's environment is already being affected by pollution from China and it is offering US$2 billion to promote a `greener' East Asia Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda yesterday unveiled a US$2 billion aid package to help developing Asian nations fight pollution and combat climate change. The initiative, announced by Fukuda at a summit of Asian leaders, includes soft loans and training programs over five years, and is aimed at helping the region tackle global warming while pushing forward with economic development.

The package "includes loan and grant aid as well as technological training, targeting East Asian countries," a Japanese official said, without specifying which nations would receive aid. "For ASEAN nations, the efforts to address climate change must not hinder them from seeking development and economic prosperity," another official said.

Yesterday's summit included the 10 members of ASEAN, plus Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. The summit issued a declaration on fighting climate change.
The new Japanese aid is aimed specifically at helping developing Asian countries tackle air and water pollution, as well as improve sewage processing.

Japan has long relied on aid as a primary instrument of its foreign policy and considers Southeast Asia a key region to exert international influence. Pollution in China is already affecting parts of western Japan, and Japan is keen to share information to help other countries clean up the environment while ensuring economic growth.

Indonesia will host a conference on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol next month in Bali. The protocol sets limits on emissions by developed nations, but the US and Australia have refused to join it because it exempts major polluters, China and India. Australia, the world's worst greenhouse gas polluter per capita, says the emission targets imposed on it could hurt Australian industries while handing competitive advantages to developing countries.

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told reporters yesterday there were signs India and China have recognized they need to take action to stabilize and reduce emissions. "They are not going to take the view that only developed countries should deal with this issue," Downer said. "I think there has been a turning of the tide in terms of China and India's position on climate change."

China's booming economy has propelled it past the US as the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, the atmospheric pollutant that is primarily responsible for global warming. Two-thirds of China's power comes from coal, which releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than any other energy source. Over the next five years, the country expects to complete at least one new coal-fired power plant a week. In India, where several automakers are competing to provide affordable cars to the country's enormous middle class, there were 300,000 cars registered last year in the capital New Delhi alone. The government acknowledges that it expects the country's emissions to grow fivefold by 2031, which would put India about where the US is now.
The East Asia Summit was expected to call on members to work to reduce by at least 25 percent their energy intensity -- the amount of energy needed to produce a dollar of gross domestic product -- by 2030. East Asian countries also will adopt an "aspirational goal" of expanding their combined forest cover by at least 15 million hectares by 2020 and fight deforestation.
ASEAN's members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

VIETNAM: safety in transit - new law economics bite as helmet makers reap returns


HANOI: New nationwide safety laws mean all morocyclists must wear helmets. The deadline is 15 Dec 2007 and worried about police crackdown, customers rush to buy them, pushing up prices. There are benefits to being a first mover here and to being a canny stockpiler. Costs to late deciders, those with big heads [33% premium! - I pity all brainy Vietnamese economists!] and potentially those who flout this law. Will the risk of detection outweigh these inflated prices? I am sure some clever economist will be testing this out - please let me know the outcome! Important analytical questions include taxi fare rises, demand for taxis [cheap already], imports, illegal helmets, mock helmets, etc.



Helmet sellers take public for a ride from VietNamNet.

Safety helmets have increased in price by VND30,000-80,000, a jump of 30-40%, over the past two months, as customers rush to buy them in anticipation of the traffic law requiring their usage in December.
Customers rush to buy helmets as the December 15 deadline approaches for the mandatory helmet law. In response to the high demand for helmets, retailers have raised prices 30-40% in the past two months.Honda brand helmets cost VND290,000 each, up from VND170,000-180,000 in October while Protec helmets are going for VND165,000 to VND215,000 and Amoro VND95,000 to VND150,000.
Taiwanese-made helmets for children that have eye-catching sizes cost VND180,000 to VND210,000. Safety helmets will likely be even more expensive as people tend to wait until the last minute to buy them, said a distributor. Under a recent regulation of the National Committee for Traffic Safety, motorcyclists have to wear safety helmets starting December 15 when riding motorbikes on all roads and streets nationwide. The deadline is fast approaching, and more and more people are rushing to buy good quality helmets that many fear are in short supply.
It is next to impossible to buy a helmet for less than VND150,000, said Duong Huu Khanh, an employee at a navigation company.
He said an Andes brand helmet worth VND120,000 last month now costs VND180,000 for a small one and VND210,000 for a large one with sellers citing a supply shortage as the main reason. A number of Protec showrooms are currently out of stock as the firm reduces its distribution channels. Local distributors said an undersupply is unlikely given the huge number of safety helmets available from domestic and foreign sources.
Nguyen Hoang Anh, Protec’s deputy general director, said the company has been operating at full capacity with additional employees working to get orders finished by the end of the year. "The company produces an average of 1,500-2,000 safety helmets a day," he said.
Vo Van Duc Bay, deputy director in charge of business at Cho Lon Plastic Co, said the company distributes 1,000 helmets a day and will increase its supplies if demand surges. Sai Gon Plastics Joint Stock Co said the company is producing 10,000-15,000 helmets a month, but that capacity can reach 50,000 a month. People will not likely be left without safety helmets because corporate clients have ordered up to 80,000 for their employees, who would not have to buy one for themselves, said an executive of a joint venture firm involving the production of LH helmets.
Le Van Dien, sales director of Dai Viet Trading and Service Joint Stock Co., agreed, saying that in addition to 20,000 helmets in stock, the company markets 1,000-1,500 daily. Legally and illegally imported helmets are also available on the market. A HCM City-based importer specialising in importing helmets from the US and Taiwan said it had rented a warehouse months ago to stockpile helmets.

21 November 2007

BIOFUELS and CAMBODIAN FORESTS: fuelling felling, grabbing and odd economic arguments

PHNOM PENH: jatropha is being heralded as the silver bullet for biofuel production, sustainable rural livelihoods, small-scale alternatives to agriculutre and forest use, as well as a great way for poorer developing countries to access international funds. Of course, it is also a great way to fox communities, dodge legal requirements and make supernormal profits under the government and NGO radar.

Van Der Horst Biodiesel, a Singapore company that has invested in small pilot plantations of 1,000 hectares or less in China and Cambodia. Van der Horst is now negotiating for an additional 20,000 hectares in Cambodia, 10,000 hectares in Vietnam and 25,000 hectares on the Indonesian island of Seram. The company's business plan calls for it to build a biodiesel plant in Singapore, with a 200,000-ton annual production capacity, to process jatropha from its plantations in the region

Read mnore here in International Herald Tribune.

ERASED FORESTS: rubber, biofuels and rural communities

PHNOM PENH: rubber demand is rising, Chinese, Cambodian and Korean companies are gaining plantation concessions in Cambodia. Yet, with land rights ill-defined, activists fear for local communities losing land, losing access to livelihoods, losing future benefit-sharing opportunities and becoming even more marginalised. With 60% of rubber for car tyres, and fast development in SE Asia, this is an issue that requires further analysis and attention. Will climate change help reduce this demand? will technology mean greater re-use and longer tyre lives? will fashion mean we change our cars for newer models more often?

Article from India's Zee News: Rubber demand surging with scarce supply

With buyers the world over scouring for natural rubber and producing countries struggling to increase supplies, industry will soon feel the bite of spiralling prices. Though the market has been very much in balance in 2007, demand could exceed supply as early as next year as several factors conspire to curb output growth in the main producing countries of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. These include delays in planting caused by erratic weather, limits in cultivable land, labour supply constraints, higher wage costs and religious insurgency. "There is no single piece of evidence to foresee a decline in the price. All factors are favourable for an increase in price," said Jom Jacob, senior economist of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. "There are well-defined limits for natural rubber supply to increase at least until 2012. So, the tight supply situation is likely to continue," he said. International prices have risen four-fold since hitting 30-year lows in 2001, when there was a supply glut. Some analysts say they expect rubber to rise around 18 percent to $3 a kg next year. Thai RSS3 grade, often used as the benchmark for physical prices, stood at USD2.55 a kg on Friday. "It`s possible the price will reach $3, although I would prefer to refrain from mentioning any specific number. Strong demand, mainly from China, is one of the factors that will push up the price," said a Tokyo-based analyst. China boom The recovery in rubber prices and continued robust demand have taken place on the coat-tails of China`s booming economy. Tyres account for 60 % of the country`s rubber consumption, according to China Rubber Industry Association. As the world`s largest consumer, China last year imported 1.6 million tonnes of natural rubber, which is used in everything from tyres to sports shoes. China`s rubber consumption is to rise 12 % in 2007 from 2.1 million tonnes last year, according to the China Rubber Industry Association. China is emerging as a major exporter of cars and production of tyres has grown above 20 percent a year over the past few years. And last year, China outstripped Japan to become the world`s number-two auto market, with sales of 7.2 million vehicles and output of 7.3 million. "There`s a close relationship between economic growth and domestic consumption. From 2007 to 2010, I anticipate demand growth in China at between 7 and 10% each year for natural rubber," said Jacob of the ANPRC. Deficit looms "We expect global consumption to rise to 9.7 million tonnes in 2007, which is an increase of around 4%. Next year`s may reach around 10.1 million tonnes," said a London-based analyst. "Of course there`s global economic growth, and demand from the tyre industry is obviously the key factor. Also, within the increase in global demand, we`ve got the increase in GDP and the increase in mining activity that pushes up demand for tyres." With consumpution on the rise, supply will be a problem for the market. Synthetic rubber remains expensive as it is made from pricey crude oil. The International Rubber Study Group put global natural rubber output at 9.7 million tonnes in 2006 but output this year and next remains constrained. Output in Thailand, the world`s largest producer, may fall 1.5 % to about 3 million tonnes in 2007 from a year earlier because heavy rains have disrupted tapping. Production has also been hurt by separatist violence in Thailand`s southern provinces, which account for 10 percent of the country`s output. The second-largest producer, Indonesia, could see its output unchanged at 2.8 million tonnes next year, due to climate change and poor yields. Malaysia, the third-largest producer, may lose 250,000 hectares of plantations between 2008 and 2020 because of rapid industrialisation and expansion of its palm oil plantations as demand for biofuel drives prices to record highs. With emerging producers such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, also struggling to boost output due to the lack of suitable land, rubber manufacturers will face higher costs. "Everybody cares about rising prices but there`s very little choice. There`s not much you can do very quickly to reduce your exposure to natural rubber consumption. I think we`ll have a deficit starting next year," said the London-based analyst. "Going forward, we`re looking at the deficit running to probably 2013. We don`t dare forecast the shortfall but fundamentals are driving the direction, while the extent of the movements in prices is probably driven more strongly by speculators." India, whose economy has grown at an average of 8.6% in the past four years, grows rubber but also imports the commodity from Southeast Asia to fill a supply gap. "A surge in the natural rubber price is inevitable with the widening of the demand and supply gap in the coming few years," said Arup Chandra, head of research and development at Apollo Tyres, one of India`s main tyre makers. India`s tyre industry has an annual turnover of USD4.5 billion and production of passenger cars is expected to grow 18 percent each year from 2006 to 2010.

13 November 2007

CLIMATE CHANGE IS UNDER THREAT: from public opinion

HANOI: it seems climate change may be under threat from fickle public opinion. While this is not a contra-CC article, it verges on it, taking a market-based approach - "if the market isnt fixing it, it aint broke"! "Notwithstanding the positive contributions (and potentially healthy financial performances) of the companies included in the Climate Change-Global Warming indices, the unavoidable truth is that their fortunes in the stock markets are ultimately linked to people's belief in global warming and its degree of severity."

It reads:

In the past few months, there has been a flurry of activity in the "green investments" arena. In August, Credit Suisse (NYSE:CSR) unveiled its Global Warming Index, with HSBC throwing its hat into the ring just weeks later with its Climate Change Index. Both innovative devices allow investors direct plays on the stocks of companies that should, in principle, benefit from the altered climatic conditions that seem to surround us these days. While Credit Suisse has chosen to select a basket of 40 firms, HSBC has opted for a larger selection of 300 names, with both indices focusing on renewable and alternative energies.

Should investors pay heed and punt on those companies bent on making millions out of the new weather realities? The easy answer would seem to be yes, definitely. Few would nowadays doubt that climate change is not only a reality, but a severe problem that needs to be tackled with the utmost urgency, thus significantly enhancing future demand for things like ethanol or wind turbines. And there is the ethical kicker to boot. By betting on the health of green companies, you would not only be destined to reap millions but also contribute to the clean-up of the planet. Who could resist that?

And yet, it seems difficult not to detect some potential risks associated with such investment strategy. It is not so much that the products and services offered by the names included in vehicles like the new indices may not end up being heavily sought-after. Rather, the key risk lies in the fact that climate change is such an emotional issue, almost entirely driven by thinly informed perceptions. Semi-religious for many, these perceptions are prone to dramatic shifts in sentiment for the most irrational of reasons. If chaotic, wild-swinging human decision-making processes are a concern for every investor, the semi-fanaticism that surrounds the global warming debate makes green investments particularly exposed.

Notwithstanding the positive contributions (and potentially healthy financial performances) of the companies included in the Climate Change-Global Warming indices, the unavoidable truth is that their fortunes in the stock markets are ultimately linked to people's belief in global warming and its degree of severity. If the outside world overwhelmingly believes that global warming and climate change are both real and can have severe consequences, green companies can benefit in the markets. But if, for whatever reason (perhaps new scientific evidence, perhaps a bout of cold weather, perhaps a tiredness about Al Gore's relentless preaching) the perceptions begin to change and people stop viewing climate change as that big a problem, green stocks could suffer indiscriminately.

The inner complexities of the issue are quite possibly alien to many of those faithfuls who bow at the global warming altar. After all, how many of today's anti-climate changers have really examined the scientific evidence, or even listened to all the relevant points of view? How many became converted simply because that seemed the appropriate, trendy thing to do? Such disinformed, passionate, animal-spirited decision-making tends to bode ill for any market, as any indication that the fad may be built on shaky foundations could trigger a devastating and sudden abandonment of investment faith.

In essence, the global warming debate seems mostly dominated by flimsy perceptions and borrowed wisdom, not fundamental analysis. When so many opinions are determined by emotions and voluntary submission to faddish popular conventional wisdom, they become extremely vulnerable to a drastic shift on very short notice.

Paradoxically, such a shift could take place in the green investments arena even if global warming turns out to be as nasty as originally predicted. All that matters is whether people stop believing in climate change, not whether climate change does actually take place.

Several recent events (including historical snowfalls in Argentina and South Africa, sceptical comments by NASA's chief, and a court resolution in the UK citing the bias of Al Gore's film) provide examples of the kind of ammunition that could cause a change in perceptions. Were global warming to start being seen as less severe or less threatening, the stocks of green companies could be indiscriminately thrown down the toilet, independently of the financial health of the company or the soundness of its strategy.
Climate may change in public opinion By Pablo Triana. From the FT.
Pablo Triana directs the Centre for Advanced Finance at Instituto de Empresa business school, Madrid

12 November 2007

CLIMATE CHANGE, EQUITY and SPECIES: Sanctuary for cranes, Cambodia


The TallEconomist will be in Cambodia - wondering how the latest fad in conservation will work with hungry people and less food security among climate change:"wildlife officials had been dispatched to tell local fishermen and farmers not to hunt the cranes for food" ...

PHNOM PENH, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Cambodia has established an 8,000 hectare (20,000 acre) sanctuary in flood plains near the Mekong Delta to protect the rare Eastern Sarus Crane, Environment Minister Mok Mareth said on Friday.Nearly 300 of the red-headed, 1.3 metre (4 feet) tall birds have been found in two districts of Takeo province near the border with Vietnam. Conservationists said in 1999 there may be fewer than 1,000 of the birds left in the wild."We need to protect these beautiful creatures," Mok Mareth said, adding that wildlife officials had been dispatched to tell local fishermen and farmers not to hunt the cranes for food.The cranes have also been found in the northwestern province of Banteay Meanchey province, 300 km (185 miles) northwest of Phnom Penh, in an old Khmer Rouge reservoir.Thanks to a similar government protection and sanctuary scheme introduced in 1999, that population had grown from 220 to 495 this year, officials said.

11 November 2007

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EQUITY: sugar sugar


BBC Radio Four's The Food Programme today was about the changes in the EU's sugar regime, with reporting from Barbados.
If you have good-quality internet access, you can still hear here. It is 24 minutes long.
Or if you are in the UK, you can hear a slightly longer version of it broadcast again on Radio 4 at 16.00 GMT on Monday, November 12th.

Ghent six-days: The greenest way to travel and party



Ghent six days. There is no greener way to travel. Book now to avoid disappointment here!

CLIMATE CHANGE, EQUITY and APATHY: UK consumers do not put their MONEY where their mouths are!

Article from Freshinfo.com reporting the ZERO impact on sales of fresh produce of airfreight stickers. The question the TallEconomist must ask is -- what would the consumer response have been if the stickers had indicated the "sustainable development" cost or benefit of the product?

Tesco and M&S admit airfreight apathy

November 10, 2007
Freshinfo 7 November 2007
Controversial airfreight stickers added to packs of fresh produce by Tesco and Marks & Spencer since April have had no impact on sales, the two retailers have admitted.
According to The Grocer, while neither retailer gave away the exact figures, they both said there was no direct evidence to suggest consumers were so concerned about their carbon footprints that they were turning away from airfreighted produce.
The news became clear during the Soil Association's consultation into whether or not to bar organic status from produce that had been flown to the UK.
Experts suggest consumers either do not care about the carbon footprint of such products or misunderstand the link between the label and the product's environmental impact.
But Tesco said the situation may have changed since sales figures were reviewed in September, and that it was still committed to developing more detailed carbon labelling for shoppers.
"It's still early days for the scheme," said a Tesco spokeswoman. "These findings are not in the same league as carbon labelling, where we haven't changed our thinking. Airfreight is a very immediate, visual thing, while carbon labelling will be much more detailed, so the two can't be compared. We are still committed to establishing an industry-wide carbon labelling system with the Carbon Institute and the BSI."

07 November 2007

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EQUITY: Africa caught in the tough ‘food miles' war with UK


Source: Business Daily (Kenya). by Zeddy Sambu

Kenyan stakeholders re-ignite the debate over how to balance the socio-economic development benefits from the export horticultural trade with Europe with the carbon costs. One telling fact is that this needs to grow for genuine economic benefits to be accorded to Africa and to have any chance of filtering down to the poorest. Indeed, it is reported that a one per cent increase in Africa's share of global trade would deliver seven times more than the continent receives in aid. This is a figure to bear in mind when African trade is put under threat by tokenistic gestures such as "food miles" ...

Every day, a cargo plane leaves the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi with Kenya's agricultural produce destined for the European market. But it lands in Europe as a surging air-miles debate continues threatening to curtail growth in the agriculture sector.
Mr Joseph Muchemi, the Kenyan high commissioner in London, is sitting right at the centre of the storm and is fighting back.
"As an exporting country, we feel that air freight has been unfairly picked out as being the prime contributor to carbon emissions and that the concept of ‘food miles' as indicative of environmental sustainability is misleading," Mr Muchemi said in a statement sent to Business Daily.
The air miles debate - introduced early this year - has now broadened to include the spectrum of energy use and framing methods, with local players term as crude, the efforts by the European Union to introduce new standards.
Fresh campaigns aim to shift attention from the much hyped climate change debate to the contribution of trade in fresh produce making the fight against poverty and economic welfare of growers in the developing world.
Besides , African growers are facing the commercial standards threat set by individual EU member countries and supermarket chains.
The food miles concept, researchers say, needs reform, to include social and economic development aspects.
While UK researchers have disagreed with retailers' design of a new aeroplane label on exports, on Friday, the debate, took a new twist to include farming methods dashing Kenyan hopes on the fight against climate change and boost of revenue from one of Kenya's leading foreign exchange earner.
The Soil Association, Britain's largest organic food association, said it will continue to put its stamp of approval on products sent by air, but only if the food sales help poor farmers.
The official certifier of over 70 per cent of organic produce sold in Britain, the lobby appeared keen to cut down on airfreight with intention to see a total ban in the future.
Air freighted organic produce, it said , must, henceforth, adhere to stricter ‘ethical' policies in order to be accredited and sold in the key market that absorbs 65 per cent of Kenya's fresh fruits, vegetables and flower exports. Previously, the environmental lobby debated refusing to certify products shipped by air freight because of high carbon emissions from planes.
But the group says details of the proposal would be open to discussion throughout 2008 and would become effective January 2009.
"Our aim is to minimise air freight by encouraging alternatives, such other forms of shipping, and creating local organic markets," Anna Bradley, chairwoman of the Soil Association Standards Board, told reporters in London last week. "We recognise that building alternative markets that offer the same social and economic benefits as organic exports take time," she said.
Experts are warning that more restrictive practices will damage its organic export market, which is growing in demand in the UK.
Although developing markets such as Kenya use less carbon intensive farming methods, analysts say collapse of the horticulture sector could see the country lose Sh114 billion in trade and investment.
Environmental organisations like Greenpeace, which earlier said it was concerned about the large carbon footprint created by food shipped via air freight, had been involved in consultations over the new standards, Bradley said. Nearly 95 per cent of Kenya's exports to the UK are sent by ship, which is far less intensive in terms of carbon emissions.
Campaigns unveiled in July by Kenyan flower exporters in the height of the climate change battle, introduced the ‘Grown Under the Sun' label to counter the campaign fronted by UK traders and environmental lobbyists.
"All environmental and social aspects need to be analysed, and trade-offs assessed. Singular comparisons do not necessarily help us to generate good policy," said Jane Ngige, the Kenya Flower Council's chief executive.
The local horticultural industry and its exports to the UK currently supports around one million Kenyans and generates at least £100 million per year to play a key role in its economy.
New research findings by the International Institute for Environment Development (IIED) show that developing markets such as Kenya actually use far less carbon-intensive farming methods, and so the broader picture looks very different.
It estimates that air-freighting from sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 0.1 per cent of the UK's total carbon emissions while around 65 per cent of emissions relating to food are caused by transportation within Britain.
Gareth Thomas, the UK Minister for Trade and Development, last week, noted that driving around six miles to a supermarket to buy some Kenyan green beans, emits the same amount of carbon as air-freighting that pack of green beans.
"If you consider that the majority of Kenyan fresh produce is freighted in the hold of passenger aircraft, then the emissions relating to that pack of green beans is even less," said Mr Thomas.
IIED says before targeting developing countries such as Kenya whose emissions per capita are 0.9 tonnes as opposed to Europe's 22 tonnes per capita, the UK needs to prioritise addressing domestic road transport and energy use first, then aviation.
Estimates of doubling of air travel in the next 20 years, coupled with high carbon emissions, and the exacerbating effect of "radiative forcing", make aviation cuts, a necessary part of the solution and realise targets under Kyoto Protocol.
The Kyoto Protocol recognises the need for equity and economic development for developing countries in the transition to a low-carbon future. The UK's carbon footprint is largely domestically generated, the IIED report notes. But the main share of increased flights appears to be passenger traffic. In the UK, passenger flights account for 90 per cent of emissions from air transport, and international freight for five per cent.
"There is no firm evidence that UK if consumers are not eating imported produce, fewer planes would fly today or in future. Indeed, an annual expansion of six per cent in air traffic in all sectors air freight imports, passenger volumes, and dedicated freight," says the London-based IIED.
Only 1.5 per cent of imported produce arrive in air transport but that portion produces 50 per cent of all emissions from fruit and vegetable transportation.
Currently, average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions globally stands at 3.6 tonnes globally, the UK (9.2 tonnes) and Africa, one tonne.
"African figures are skewed towards oil-rich countries, and only two countries exceed the global average. Many African countries are feeling the force of climate change impacts, the root cause of which was produced in developed countries" IIED's James McGregor and Bill Vorley, authors of the ‘Fair Miles? The Concept of "food miles" Through a Sustainable Development Lens', say.
They want the ‘Food miles' campaign to be replaced by the new concept of ‘fair miles.'
The earlier concept, it says, is blind to social and economic benefits associated with trade in food, especially from developing countries, while previous inclusion of sub-Saharan Africa in these high-value markets has been a success story.
UK consumers spend over £1 million (about Sh137 million) at retail every day on produce from Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe, that supplies 40 per cent of air freighted imports, and is now growing despite the threats. Trade, it notes, is dependent on the UK consumer, and also on air-freight, bringing climate change impacts of this trade into the development equation.
The new findings show that it is only through the sale of fresh produce that UK consumers will interact with rural Africa. Poor African countries rely on the UK market to support their domestic industry. By not buying the produce, UK, researchers say, will be guarding against an insignificant less-than 0.1 per cent in CO2 emissions.
"Economic development for the poorest in a low carbon future means expanding emissions for some," says the report in part. It adds that over one million livelihoods in Africa are supported by UK consumption of imported fresh fruits and vegetables.
On the contrary, ‘Food miles' presents an argument to buy commodities which have travelled the shortest distance from farm to table, and to discriminate against long-haul transportation, especially air-freighted goods.
The long-distance transport of food is associated with additional emissions due to increased transportation coupled with greater packaging, as well as a disconnection between the public and local farming.
It is estimated that annually, the UK "imports" 189 million cubic metre of African water as a result of the import of green beans, which is enough to provide 10 million Kenyans with drinking water.
An estimated £200 million is injected into rural economies in Africa through trade with the UK alone. Africa is a relatively efficient "investment" by the UK in allocating its carbon emissions to support livelihoods when compared to the efficiency of the remaining 99.9 per cent that is supporting 60 million UK residents.
Unlike many western farming methods, machinery is rarely used and Kenya's indigenous geothermal energy provides a sustainable way to maintain humidity on flower farms. This year, the world's largest commercial project using solar panels for providing energy for farms was launched in Kenya.
Water recycling systems on farms encourage plant growth and supports biodiversity.
Similar studies have been conducted with refrigerators on ships that use more energy keeping the produce fresh over longer periods of time than a short journey by aeroplane.
The UK has always encouraged trade relationships with Kenya and the countries have been major trading partners for generations.
While the Kenyan economy and development is greatly enriched by high-value organic exports to the UK, Kenya is also leading the way in the East African Community in trading closer to home and will continue to build upon this local trade.
It is well reported that a one per cent increase in Africa's share of global trade would deliver seven times more than the continent receives in aid. This is a figure to bear in mind when African trade is put under threat.
There are clear socio-economic benefits of organic farming in Kenya and it would be beneficial to nurture Kenyan organic farming.
"British farmers currently have access to, among other things, subsidised diesel fuel for machinery which perhaps does send out the right message about emissions and climate change," says KFC.

06 November 2007

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EQUITY: A new era for global citizenry?


Saleemul Huq from IIED at Gristmill. It is time for a new era of global citizenry in which people around the world come together to both take and demand effective action.

05 November 2007

Three-quarters of people lie to BBC about green issues

An article today on the BBC demonstrates the depth of lying worldwide about personal climate change mitiagtion. The BBC report 83% of people worldwide reported they are willing to make personal sacrifices to be greener.

Previous surveys have shown that 40% of people in the UK say they are willing to make changes for the environment, and less than one-tenth of them actually will do when making financial dec isions (i.e. 4%). Assuming that lying is a universal trait (and not confined to British people), this means that of the 83%, around 8% of these will take decisions that will cost them but favour the environment. BUT, a full three-quarters are lying ...

But, I have yet to see an article or survey work looking at the environment/ development trade-offs. What about climate change and equity? An unanswerable question?

31 October 2007

Humping climate change and equity! Can camels carry the burden of future milk supplies under climate change?



Humping climate change and equity! Humping biofuels! Humping Margaret Thatcher's trademark milk-snatching!

There are no doubt many silver bullets to this emerging problem. But, can camels carry the burden of future milk supplies under climate change?

The impact of climate change in East Africa is well-documented:

  • Climate change will make many areas of Africa more arid

  • Pastoralists will be hardest hit as some areas that are currently dry but are used as rangeland owing to the existence of ephemeral water courses – that will begin to run dry more frequently

  • Many people [particularly the poorest] throughout Africa rely on milk protein supplied from pastoral herds as cheap, constant inputs into their diet

  • Pastoral herds are being squeezed as:
    *** Land use changes are dis-favouring pastoralism, reducing total herd sizes and hence reducing local supply, encouraging imports and increasing the price of milk protein
    *** Climate change reduces availability of forage, water and land – further reducing supply.
    *** Demand for milk rises as the urban-pull demands of richer people out-compete the rural poor’s demands
    *** South African imports of cheap animal feed are drying up as the maize is being diverted for biofuels - increasing the cost of production

    BUT … there are positive signs:
  • Higher prices of milk and meat might favour pastoralists, increasing investment [political and financial] in ensuring their livelihoods persist.

  • Camel milk as a substitute is increasingly viable as consumer acceptability increases and camels are better adapted than livestock/ zebu to more arid conditions.

    Camels and milk, some facts:
  • There are over 20 million camels

  • Over 5 million tonnes of camel milk produced each year – most is used to suckle young camels

  • Camels are the most efficient domestic animal for converting vegetative matter into work, milk and meat in desert areas

  • Camels can provide long, steady supply of milk in the driest of times.

  • During very dry periods, the water content of camel milk increases.

  • Camel milk has three times the Vitamin C content of cow’s milk, as well as being low cholesterol, low sugar, high in minerals.

  • Of course, in some countries it is famed as an aphrodisiac [e.g. Ethiopia]

  • Estimated market by UN FAO for camel milk is 200 million people.

  • Mauritania already exports camel milk to Europe and throughout Africa.

  • Market innovations include camel cheese [Camelbert] and ice cream.

  • Camelicious – a date flavoured camel milk in UAE

In East Africa, demand is mainly from urbanised Somalis. But it is the product of informal supply chains, and the hygiene standards are uncertain. The Kenyan Camel Association [kca@wananchi.com] is trying to develop a market linking urban consumers with rural pastoral communities – through ILRI.

Currently, Vital is marketing camel milk as 500ml milk – KSch 99/-; yoghurt – KSch 129/-; susa or sour milk – KSch 89/-; ice cream termed Cold Hump in flavours [Macadamia Nut, pineapple and coconut, cinammon and cardamom, banana and chocolate].

Importantly, we should expect many more stories like this to begin emerging - evidencing not only climate change through the markets but also hinting at mankind's inherent resolute capacity for adaptation in the face of rising risks. threats and opportunities.

Thatcher the milk snatcher is back: Biofuels snatch milk from poor Africans

Biofuels are fuelling a milk crisis for poor protein-needy people throughout East Africa - all because of climate change.

With rising milk prices thanks to lower milk supply from pastoral grass-fed herds, owing to a cut in cheap animal feed imports from South Africa. A clear case of shockingly imbalanced climate change and equity. Where are the NGOs screaming for sustainable development and equity?

Some facts on the current milk crisis - are biofuels the new Margaret Thatcher of world economies - snatching milk from poor children?

  • Kenya produces 3.078 billion litres of milk annually, of which only 200 million litres are processed into various value added products. Most is consumed by the rural people - the most marginalised in East Africa.
  • More raw milk than processed milk is consumed not only in the rural areas but also in the urban centres, including Nairobi, Kenya's capital city where 80 per cent of all milk consumption is unprocessed.
  • Milk provides a conduit to livelihoods options, such as access to capital:
    *** Under an arrangement with the big processors, farmers and milk co-operative societies can now get up to Sh500,000 loans repayable through deductions from milk earnings.
    *** Growth in this sector is catching the attention of financiers who are enticing farmers with a raft of incentives to take loans for improvement of their farms.
  • And demand is increasing from Kenyans: Central Bank of Kenya says total milk processed increased from 143.5 million litres to 362 million litres, representing an overall increase of 152 per cent in past four years.
  • Prices for milk sold into supply chains are up by 25% in 2007.
  • Milk processing factories have been working work below capacity by 30-40 per cent.
  • Concern is rising about over-reliance on fickle natural pasture or a rain fed system - which is itself being changed through climate change impacts - paradoxically owing to the poor environmental consequences of developed country economic development.
  • Biofuel production in South Africa [using maize, corn] is diverting supply to cheap necessary animal feeds.
  • Prices of animal feedstuffs are up 50% in 2007. "We can no longer get yellow maize imports from South Africa. Some of these crops are being diverted for the production of bio fuels," said Joseph Ngera, a farmers' representative from Nakuru.
  • Plus, cheap imports are flooding in: "Our exports are curtailed by high duty (229 per cent) while we charge only 60 per cent duty for highly subsidised dairy produce from neighbouring countries," said Mr Muhika Mutahi, the chairman of the Kenya National Dairy Producers Association (Kendapo).

Kenya: Milk Output Up Despite Unreliable Weather by Zeddy Sambu from Business Daily (Nairobi), 11 October 2007. Article here.

30 October 2007

Manmohan Singh, Indian Prime Minister on CLIMATE CHANGE AND EQUITY

India’s Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh inaugurated the Fortune Global Forum in New Delhi on 29/10/07. He drew analogies between international trade in goods and services and climate change issues.

"What the world needs today is a new concord between private enterprise and public welfare. How do we maintain the required incentive mechanisms that encourage private initiative and enterprise, while at the same time ensure that public welfare is also enhanced? This dilemma poses itself most obviously in the field of health care. The policies we require to incentivise new R&D must be balanced against the need to ensure availability of medicines at affordable prices to the world's people.

There are similar trade-offs we need to reflect on when we consider the problem of climate change, global warming, ecological degradation and environment policies. The developing world will continue to see per capita consumption of CO2 emissions rising in the foreseeable future. This will exert pressure on global resources. How do we balance the aspirations of the world's poor against our shared concern about the sustainability of the growth process?

Let me assure you that we in India are deeply and sincerely committed to the protection of our environment because we all share a single global environment. The Indian approach to climate change and global warming derives from the ancient Hindu saying - vasudhaiva kutumbakam - "the whole universe is one family".

As I had said at the G8 Summit some months ago in Germany, India accepts its global responsibilities. We are willing to accept the obligation that our per capita emissions of CO2 will never exceed the per capita emissions of developed countries. If developed countries succeed in reducing their per capita emissions, this would exert pressure and will be a source of incentive for all of us as well.

Whether it is on trade policy or on climate change, or indeed on any other international obligation, India has always worked with the global community. Moreover, India has never reneged on its international commitments. India has been a reliable partner, a responsible global citizen. India respects the rule of law in international relations. India is, therefore, a predictable partner. This is what makes India an attractive destination for investors like you. "

Mugabe on FaceCrook, from South Africa's Independent on Sunday


29 October 2007

Feed miles: airfreighted food increases FOR ANIMALS!

Almost a third more food was flown into Britain last year than in 2005, embarrassing the Government which has promised to slash the pollution and congestion from "food miles".

HOWEVER, it also shows that fresh produce imported is a fraction of airfreighted foods - it is mostly for the MADE IN THE UK beef and pork that we all buy thinking it will reduce our carbon footprint. Whereas in fact,imports from rainforest-denuding countries are rising as our British-grown meat apetites are soaring!

DEFRA report Air-freight rose 31 per cent in the year to 2006, which published the figures on its website without a press notice yesterday, a day after the Soil Association decided not to implement a full ban on air-freighted food.

It looks like the Soil Association will need to stop certifying all animal-fed meat from the UK that canno show its footprint does not include rainforest destruction and/or shipping miles!

The importation of animal feed from Brazil and the US was blamed by Defra for the steep rise, which means that air miles have more than quadrupled - a rise of 379 per cent - since 1992.
Full article available here.

28 October 2007

Climate change and equity: Biofuels 'crime against humanity'

Article on the BBC neatly sums up the recent comments by Jean Zigler on how biofuels have been seized on by NGOs, lobbyists and climate change apologists as a way forward - without considering the economic implications of such a position. One day, all NGOs will employ economists [height for once being unimportant], and they will listen to them ...

Some NGOs already have clever economists in their midst, but far too few! - here is Annie Dufey's work and a publication from ODI that lays out the links and hence the risks from meddling with core livelihood-supporting functions of the economies of developing countries.

27 October 2007

Tourism, sustainable development and equity: Developing countries say "your carbon emissions are on us!"

Mozambique, 21 OCTOBER 2007. On my 16-seater Beech 1900 from Vilanculos to Johannesburg, read the excellent Africa Geographic including a letter from Dave Martin from Eastern Cape, South Africa talking about an earlier article [unseen] on the sustainability of flying. He writes: "climate change is a result of the rich world's inability to live sustainably. However, the solution is not to condemn the developing world to even greater misery by reducing air travel. The rich need to decrease their emissions drastically ... while Africans are entitled to increase ours moderately as we pull ourselves out of poverty. I believe the way to attribute emissions from holiday travel is to accrue them to the destination country. One million foreign tourists fly to South Africa annually, each emitting around 2.3 tonnes of carbon - increasing the per capita load for South Africans by 0.051 tonnes annually. So to the rich world, we say "cancel your holidays in Europe, Australia and the US and come to the developing world ... your carbon emissions are on us!".

Sports, sustainable development and equity: Rugby, equitably letting the middle-income nation win

JOHANNESBURG, 20 October 2007. Thankfully South Africa won. You can see my videos of the celebrations in Melville on youtube. In addition, to Business Day proclaiming this “victory” to be a turning point for the nation [see “The End of Transformation” by Andile Mngxitama in Business Day], we also hear that:
  • The South African Rugby took out insurance against the Springboks winning to avoid paying out the squad bonuses – the insurance has allegedly already paid out!
  • Squad bonuses total ZAR 1.5 million per player
  • Bonuses were higher in 1995 for the winning team
  • Brian Habana is expected to earn millions in endorsements and other promotions and is expected to replace Jonah Lomu as the worldwide face of rugby
  • The football team’s nickname will be changed from Bafana Bafana [translates as boys-boys] – probably [back to] the Springboks thanks to Thabo Mbeki’s intervention

But the country really wants to know HOW is the football team going to jump from 83rd in the world to lift the Football World Cup on homesoil in 2010!