Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts

09 January 2008

DOMINO EFFECT? Regional economic cost of KENYAN problems becoming apparent


Kenya's position as a hub for transport and trade in East and Southern Africa is aptly demonstrated by the current problems and subsequent disruption. Fisheries companies in neighbouring Uganda cannot access packaging boxes let alone export through the usual channels into SOuth Africa. Compounding this are price rises as oil costs increase owing to distribution problems. The spectre of snowballing poverty is emerging. From an economic perspective, it is during times of shocks that an economy relies on its key export sectors to continue and to help drip-feed the rest of the economy through the mire. Yet, it seems a mixture of the hub business model and the reliance of many of the companies at the vanguards of fragile economies on Kenya's throughput might produce a catastrophic domino effect starting with the richer and more reliable internationally-trading companies. What this means for the majority of poorer, locally trading and subsistence farmers and workers remains unclear but is not for continued unfettered growth. Let's hope this forecast is wrong.


Source: "Uganda: Three Fish Exporters Suspend Operations", New Vision (Kampala)
Macrines Nyapendi
THREE fish exporting companies have suspended operations due to high production costs caused by the post-election violence in Kenya. The plants are Oakwood based at Kansensero landing site, Wild Catches in Butiaba, Lake Albert and Marine and Agro.
"Skyrocketing fuel prices and lack of packaging materials has forced us to temporarily close down. If the violence in Kenya continues, all processors will halt operations," a source said.
Solid packaging boxes imported from South Africa, which come into the country by road through Kenya, have not arrived.
Dick Nyeko, the commissioner for fisheries, said the processors who suspended operations use generators because they are not connected to the main power grid.
He added: "But even those who are connected to the main power grid may be affected by the surging prices of the Nile Perch at the landing sites and the depreciating dollar."
"The fuel crisis has severely affected fish exports because boats fishing Nile Perch use petrol engines. Nile Perch prices at the landing sites have been rising by 10% daily," Nyeko said.
A kilogramme of Nile Perch at the landing sites was at sh3500 before the crisis.
Hundreds of fishermen in Butiaba and Kasensero landing sites are stuck with fish.
"The situation is getting worse by the day. Our main buyers have stopped us from supplying them, yet the other processors are in Kampala. We cannot take fish to Kampala plants because we don't have contracts with them," a fisherman in Butiaba said.
Fish export earnings stand at over $150m (sh255b) annually with fish being the second largest forex earner after coffee.
Nyeko said the violence in Kenya is a blessing to the lake's ecosystem.
"The pressure mounted on the Nile Perch species has reduced. This will help regeneration of stocks," he explained.
Last week, the processors and the fisheries department officials had a meeting to plan how they could avert the crisis.

07 January 2008

Do Beanz meanz [we forgive democracy] hijackerz? UK hopes Kenyan exports not disrupted!

The UK middle/ chattering classes are really hoping the Kenyan public's reaction to its hijacked election does not mean interrupted fresh green beans and roses on Valentine's Day. Although, maybe this is the sort of international pressure and exposure that is needed to resolve the current troubles -- how else to keep the developed world engaged in the emerging problems in another of Africa's success stories.
It is the Tall Economist's opinion that a greater understanding of the African nature of a number of everyday household products will be well demonstrated by such interruptions. I just hope the situation resolves and trade can begin again with gusto and great quality we have come to expect from Kenya and its feeder countries that rely on its transport hubs [Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia]. As Philip Ngunjiri notes, "Economists credit Kibaki's government with allowing private enterprise the freedom to flourish. But they say growth could have been even better if the government had tackled corruption, speeded infrastructure improvements and fought crime." If only ...

Sources: Kenyan Broadcasting Corporation "UK companies move to protect 2008"; "Uganda: Kenya Stumbles, And Uganda Loses Its Step" The Monitor (Kampala) by Charles M. Mpagi ; "East Africa: Neighbours Also Suffer As Kenya Burns" The East African (Nairobi) by Philip Ngunjiri

Kenyan Broadcasting Corporation "UK companies move to protect 2008"

British companies moved to protect hundreds of thousands of staff in Kenya following post election violence that had threatened the country's economy.
More than 60 British companies - including Barclays, Unilever and GlaxoSmithKline - have operations in Kenya, a former British colony where the UK is the country's largest foreign investor, with investments worth an estimated £1.5bn.
The supply of roses, a major Kenyan export, has been disrupted by the violence
Unilever, which owns two tea plantations and employs several thousand Kenyans, said it was "taking all necessary steps to safeguard all our employees" following violence that is feared to have claimed at least 300 lives.
"Employee welfare is obviously paramount," said a Unilever spokesman.
Both Barclays and Standard Chartered, which employ 4,000 staff combined, closed a number of branches in areas where tensions were high "until further notice". GlaxoSmithKline said it had stepped up security at its manufacturing site on the outskirts of Nairobi.
Following the violence, sparked by disputed presidential elections, the world's biggest tea auction in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa and the Nairobi Coffee Exchange suspended trading because of concerns about security.
Most east African producers sell tea at the Mombasa auctions.
Kenya is the world's third largest exporter of tea, which, together with coffee and horticultural products, contributes to about 55pc of exports.
An estimated 135,000 Kenyans are employed in the production of flowers and fresh vegetables for the UK market.
Leading UK supermarkets - which import more than £100m of produce and flowers from Kenya every year - said that imports of green beans, mange tout, sugar snap peas, aubergines and chillies had not been affected. Kenya's total exports to the UK are worth £255m.
However there were reports that the supply of flowers, a major Kenyan export, had been disrupted.
The coming weeks are a key trading period for exporters of flowers, which supply Valentine's Day roses to the UK.
An Asda spokesman said: "Asda has a long and positive relationship with our suppliers in Kenya. Many families depend on the revenue generated from supplying products to Asda and it would be inappropriate to cease trading. We will continue to monitor the situation on an ongoing basis and will review if there is further deterioration."
There have been fears that Kenya's £450m-a-year tourist industry - the largest single contributor to the country's GDP - could be affected by the violence.
Lonrho, the London Stock Exchange listed conglomerate, said its Kenya-based budget airline had suspended flights following the violence.
The majority of flights, however, resumed on Wednesday.





Uganda: Kenya Stumbles, And Uganda Loses Its Step
The Monitor (Kampala) by Charles M. Mpagi



WITHIN hours of the violent protests following Kenya's disputed elections held Thursday last week, Uganda was on the brink of its own crisis.
Landlocked to the west of Kenya, Uganda suffered the biggest shock of countries that rely on the Mombasa sea route for imports and exports.
Long queues at fuel stations and prices that shot right through the roof immediately brought the Kenyan election, long seen as a minor distraction by most of Uganda's politically unconscious "middle class" (who are generally defined by the cheap second hand Japanese car they drive and the fact that they buy their groceries from supermarkets).
But the daunting prospect of having to pay between Shs80, 000 to Shs10,000 for a litre of petrol soon shook up their indifference and made them understand that politics matters after all. The fact that there was no fuel even if one could afford to pay for it at any price helped drive the point home.
Traders in Kampala's trading hub of Kikuubo told this news paper that, "We are suffering, business is not good, we do not have fuel." One trader who preferred not to be named also posed the tricky question: "they are talking about fuel coming, but will our goods come?"
This was in reaction to reports that the Uganda government has negotiated with the Kenyans to provide armed escort to fuel tankers through the volatile western Kenya so as to replenish stocks in Uganda.
Because of the significance of Kenya as a transit route for Ugandan imports, the crisis has seen local news media lead their bulletins with the Kenyan crisis. This concentration of attention may also be partly explained by the fact that the violence and mayhem have in a way provided answers to Uganda's own crisis and therefore the newspaper reports in part helped provide the population some form of reflection of their own fears back home.
To the ruling political class, it was the fear of a domino effect where the defeat of an incumbent government by the opposition in a neighbouring country could galvanise the domestic Opposition, which has already been gaining popularity in recent by-elections even where the President has personally been chief campaigner.
This, pundits say, could have in one way contributed to the government's hurried message of congratulation to Mr Mwai Kibaki despite the many questions that still hang around the manner of his victory.
As it turned out, only Uganda, in the entire world has sent a message of support and congratulation to Kenya. This embarrassing state of affairs has since given Uganda the unflattering distinction of being the lead news item on all major international networks.
Mr Kibaki was sworn-in in dramatic fashion within minutes of the declaration by the Electoral Commision of Kenya that he had pulled off a last minute overhaul of Mr Raila Odinga. There was no live media coverage of this event instead what was conspicuous was the presence of heavily police.
To some extent the Kenyan crisis also helped focus attention on Uganda's lack of preparedness for disasters just months after the government had again been paralysed in the face of unusually heavy unseasonal rains that led to unprecedented flooding in northern and eastern Uganda between September and early November.
As noted earlier, Uganda has not only suffered the biggest effects of the Kenya electoral crisis that has so far seen the death of at least 300 people (unofficial figures put the figure much higher) but also remains the lone voice of support to Kibaki's troubled government.
The endorsement of Mr Kibaki by President Museveni has drawn sharp criticism from the Ugandan Opposition but the man who was the conduit of the statement of congratulation, Senior Presidential Advisor on Media and Public Relations Mr John Nagenda remains unrepentant and unfazed.
Mr Nagenda told Sunday Monitor that even his boss has no regrets for remaining the sole leader to endorse Kibaki.
"He did what he thought was the right thing to do," said Nagenda on Friday.
Asked to comment on whether the message wasn't premature, he retorted, "Of course he doesn't feel it was hasty, as it is the point of the matter is that on Sunday the Electoral Commission of Kenya announced that Kibaki had won and even gave the tallies. Having done that he was sworn, Museveni has two roles to play, as President of Uganda and chairman of the East African Community (EAC). What is he supposed to do other than congratulate the person who has been declared a winner?" Nagenda said.
He then observed that in spite of the violence, as chairman of the EAC, President Museveni had asked the Kenyan government if it needed any help from its neigbours and expressed readiness to help

"East Africa: Neighbours Also Suffer As Kenya Burns" The East African (Nairobi) by Philip Ngunjiri
The ripple effects of the current political stalemate are being felt in the region, with the country's immediate neighbours that rely on the Kenyan port of Mombasa suffering the most.
According to Arun Devani, chairman of the East Africa Business Community, the five countries of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Southern Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo are suffering more than Kenya.
"In a span of four days, fuel pump prices shot up from $1.2 to $5 per litre in Kampala. The situation is equally grave in the other major cities in the region."
Mr Devani was in a Kenya business community delegation that included the Kenya Association of Manufacturers, Federation of Kenya Employers, Kenya Private Sector Alliance and the Kenya National Federation of Agricultural Producers who told a media briefing that the country was losing Ksh2 billion ($31.45 million) worth of taxes daily due to unrest caused by the disputed presidential election results.
Most business premises in Nairobi have remained closed after the announcement that declared the incumbent Mwai Kibaki the president. Since then Nairobi and its environs has been rocked by widespread riots and looting.
The results announced by the Electoral Commission of Kenya have caused tension and violence in the country and a breakdown in security because they were not considered credible and the process appeared to have been compromised, said FKE chairman Patrick Obath.
"We are concerned about the country and are keen to protect it from further violence and loss of lives.
Our hearts bleed for Kenyans who have died needlessly and we extend our condolences. In the national interest, it is important for the truth to be established about the electoral outcome," he said.
In this regard, the business community appealed to all the main political protagonists to facilitate a process of establishing the truth with regard to the disputed elections.
The numbers presented by the commission are in dispute, they said in a statement. Both parties must facilitate an independent process that establishes the truth about the verdict of Kenyans in the elections. Such results will provide a basis for negotiations between the political leaders on a settlement acceptable to both of them.
Economists credit Kibaki's government with allowing private enterprise the freedom to flourish. But they say growth could have been even better if the government had tackled corruption, speeded infrastructure improvements and fought crime.

16 December 2007

VIETNAM and CAMBODIA: more trade ... but what about sustainable tourism?


Facilitating trade is always the excuse for new border crossings. Given the competing needs for the rural poor in Cambodia and the integrity of the eastern Plains forests, the opening of a new border gate in Rattanakiri is worrying. Has a feasibility study been conducted? And what is this trade going to be facilitated in -- timber, poached wildlife and chainsaws?

Source: Nhan Dan ... "Vietnam opens another border gate with Cambodia"

Vietnam on December 15 put into service an international border gate in the Central Highlands province of Gia Lai, which borders Ratanakiri province in Cambodia.
The border gate, situated in Gia Lai province’s Duc Co district, is called Le Thanh in Vietnamese and Oyadao in Cambodian.
It is hoped to facilitate trade activities in the two countries’ border areas and also cement the ties between residents on both sides of the border.
The establishment of the border gate is also expected to help create a breakthrough for development in the triangle area which encompasses Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.